Tuesday, June 17, 2003

The FBI has just issued crime statistics for 2002. An FBI press release is here. Comparisons of 2002 and 2001 crime in dozens of major cities are here (warning: this is a PDF file).

Here are some of the results, according to the press release:

... overall violent crime decreased 1.4 percent. Among individual violent crimes, murder and forcible rape both showed increases, 0.8 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively. ...

Law enforcement agencies, collectively, within three of the Nation's four geographic regions reported data that showed decreases in their Crime Index in 2002. Those in the Northeast reported the greatest decline, 3.3 percent;followed by the Midwest, 2.1 percent; and the South, 0.1 percent. The agencies in the West reported data that showed a 2.9-percent increase in that region's Crime Index.

The volume of violent crime overall decreased in all four regions. Violent crime was down 2.8 percent in the Northeast, 1.3 percent in the South, 1.2 percent in the Midwest, and 0.6 percent in the West. As for property crime, the overall total in the West rose 3.4 percent, and that in the South increased slightly (0.1 percent). Conversely, the volume of property crime reported by agencies in the Northeast declined 3.4 percent, and that reported by agencies in the Midwest decreased 2.2 percent.

By region, the number of murders in the West rose 5.2 percent, and the number in the South increased 2.1 percent. The Northeast saw a 4.8-percent decline in the number of murders and the Midwest, a 2.8-percent decrease.


I don't get it.

For years, conservatives have told us that the decadent, depraved Bill Clinton embodied our national moral decline -- some argued that he influenced others to commit crimes. But now he's out of office. Shouldn't we be seeing a steady, inexorable decline in crime?

Conservatives have also argued that residents of "red" (Bush) states have stronger moral values than residents of "blue" (Gore) states. If that's the case, why the increases in the crime index in Plano and Lubbock, Texas, while the crime index declined in New York City and Boston?

Conservative gun advocates have argued that allowing citizens to carry concealed weapons reduces crime. But many states now permit concealed carry of weapons. Why isn't crime, especially violent crime, skyrocketing in states and localities that don't? Shouldn't thugs naturally be gravitating to places where citizens walk around gunless? Why did murder, in fact, decline in the gun-law-friendly North and Midwest, while rising in the South and West?

It couldn't be that conservatives are feeding us a lot of malarkey -- could it?

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